So, the NASCAR season will be over after this race, and we’ll have 12 weeks until the Daytona 500. It looks like Jimmie Johnson has the championship wrapped up, and would have to have a devastating wreck or mechanical failure for Mark Martin to catch him. Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of the newer cookie-cutter tracks that many of the drivers that have come into the series over the past 10 years do well at.

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Carl Edwards
The championship may be Jimmie’s, but Carl should win this race. Carl has the best average finish at the speedway (6.4) and has finished in the top ten in 4 of his 5 career races here with a win and 3 top fives. On the bad side, Carl has the 8th worst finish over the past 5 races (25.6). Don’t let that scare you though. He knows that this is a track he can win at, and he’s going to want to get that win to carry some momentum into the 2010 season.

Alternate Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
Jimmie is the man. He’s going to win the championship, and he’ll be flying high in this race. Don’t count on him taking it easy in the race and coast to the championship. He’s going to want to win the race so he can celebrate the championship in winners circle.

Kevin Harvick
Kevin has been a non-factor this season with only 8 top ten finishes, but he should be able to get another one at the Homestead-Miami speedway this weekend. He’s averaging a 9.1 place finish and has 6 top tens in 8 career races. Happy Harvick hasn’t been very happy this season, but a top ten finish this weekend should put a smile on his face.

Matt Kenseth
Matt has turned it on lately, averaging a 12.2 place finish over the last 5 races. He hasn’t been too successful at this speedway averaging a 20.6 place finish, but he has done well in recent years. In the 2005 - 2007 seasons he has collected a win, 2 top fives, and 3 top tens in the last 4 here. Look for Matt to contend again this weekend and compete for the win.

Dark horse: Martin Truex Jr.
Martin had a very good run last week and hopes to keep that going. He does have success in Miami with an average finish of 12.5 and 3 top tens in 4 career races. Martin may not contend for the win, but he should be battling for a top ten finish.

Jimmie’s wreck at Texas let Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon creep back into contention for the Cup. Can they capitalize and run better than Jimmie in Phoenix? Do you think Jimmie Johnson will have two bad weeks in a row? Phoenix is a much different track than Texas with lower banking and speeds. The drivers won’t be able to hold the throttle wide open as they have the past two weeks. They’ll be doing more driving and potentially battling the track; wanting to go faster when it won’t allow it.

Recommendations for the week:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
Jimmie won’t have two bad weeks in a row. I know it gets old to hear, but Jimmie is awesome at Phoenix too! He’s averaging a 5.4 place finish with 3 wins in the last 4 races and 6 consecutive top five finishes. In 12 career races Jimmie has 10 top tens. Simply amazing.

Alternate Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Don’t want Jimmie on your team since everyone else will have him? Then go for Denny as your chaser. He did well last week at Texas and has good history in Phoenix averaging a 10.4 place finish. The only thing I don’t like is since the first race of the chase Denny doesn’t have two consecutive top 10 finishes. In the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 8th races he has top 5 finishes. In the other races in the chase his best finish is 22nd. Not good, but he should get a top ten this weekend.

Kyle Busch
Kyle has done fairly well in Phoenix over his career with 6 top tens and a win in 9 career races. He’s also been pretty good over the last five races averaging a 12.4 place finish. I’m sure he’s disappointed that he did so well in Texas without getting the win and sweeping the weekend. I don’t know if that will affect how he drives this weekend, but no matter what, you know he’ll be aggressive and pushing to get to or stay in the front of the pack.

Jeff Burton
Jeff has shown some life in the last two races finishing 5th and 9th. Phoenix is a track that he’s had some success at collecting 3 top tens in the last 4 races here. He also has the 6th best average finish at the track (11.2). He knows how to race and is a solid veteran that can get you points.

Dark horse: Martin Truex Jr.
Truex Jr. will definitely be a dark horse. Martin was expected to contend to make the Chase, and instead he’s sitting 24th in points and only has 4 top ten finishes this season. One of those top tens was at Phoenix earlier this season. He does have 3 top tens in 4 of the last races in Phoenix, so it’s not that unreasonable to think he can’t do it again this weekend.

It’ll be hard for the finish of this race to top Talladega. Wow, was that a wild one or what? NASCAR needs to do something to get the cars out of the big packs causing the horrific wrecks. There are quite a few opinions on it, and I’ll try to write mine later in the off-season, but for now let’s focus on Texas. It’s another fast track that allows the drivers to drive. There are several drivers who do well here, so let’s take a look at the recommendations.

Recommendations This Week:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
There is no one as hot as Jimmie, and no one better than him at Texas. He’s got the Chase all but wrapped after averaging a 3.8 place finish over the last 5, and his 8.5 place average finish at Texas is best among active drivers. If you think Jimmie will take it easy this weekend and cruise to the championship, think again. Jimmie may lay back in the beginning, but by the end of the race he’ll be with the lead pack fighting for the win.

Alternate Chaser: Carl Edwards
Carl’s 3 wins at the Texas Motor Speedway are most among active drivers. His 13.4 average finish is 5th best. This is the style of track that Carl is used to dominating on. If any chaser outside of Jimmie can win it should be Carl. He hasn’t been doing so well in the chase, but Texas is a track he can dominate at and a win here would help get him geared up for next year.

Matt Kenseth
Matt’s 9.7 place average finish in Texas is 2nd only to Jimmie Johnson. He is very good at this track with a win, 6 top tens and 9 top fives in 14 career races. 5 of those top fives have been in the last 5 races. He only has two top tens (2nd & 3rd place finishes) since the chase started, but with his success in the past at Texas he should be in the top ten most of the day, and in the hunt for a top five finish. Like others that have had a disappointing year, he’s going to want to finish strong and carry the momentum into 2010.

Kyle Busch
Kyle has turned it on in the last five races averaging a 12.6 place finish, good enough for 4th best. He’s also done well in Texas finishing in the top ten in 3 of the last 4 here. We all know how aggressive Kyle can drive and he won’t be changing that just because it’s the end of the season. He wants to make sure he holds off Matt Kenseth for 13th place in points to secure the bonus, and appear at the awards banquet.

Darkhorse: Joey Logano
To say Joey has done bad in Texas is an understatement. So why have him on your team? Well, he’s a lot better driver now than he was last year, and earlier this season. Joey has really been turning it on lately; his 12.4 average finish in the last five races is 3rd best. Take a chance on the kid and put him on your team. I have a feeling he’ll battler for a top ten finish in Texas.

The Talladega Superspeedway is the largest track on the NASCAR circuit, and usually provides for an exciting race. With the restrictor plates the cars are always bunched together providing for some close racing at high speeds. So, who are the best drivers at the track? There are quite a few that have done well here in the past, but hopefully my recommendations will come through this weekend.

Recommendations for the week:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
Jimmie hasn’t necessarily done well at Talladega, but he has been absolutely ridiculous since the chase started, and has averaged a 2.8 place finish over the past 5 races, winning 3 of them. He does have a win at Talladega and 6 career top tens, so he has had success here. Look for him to continue his dominance, and if he doesn’t get caught up in someone else’s mess, he should be battling for the win at the end.

Alternate Chaser: Ryan Newman
Want to pick a chaser not named Jimmie? Ryan could be your guy. His average finish isn’t great here, 18.5, but he as 3 top tens in the last 4. Ryan has also been doing pretty well lately, averaging a 13th place finish over the last 5 races. He is a driver that loves speed, and Talladega provides that. The track suites Ryan well and he should perform this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
I know, I know; Dale has been horrible and can’t put a good finish together to save his life. But this is Talladega. This is his track. He has 5 wins, 8 top fives, and 11 top tens in 19 career races. If ever there was a track that he would break out of his funk and get a top 5 it’s Talladega. Put him on your team and watch him perk up a bit this weekend. If he has a bad performance this weekend, then he may be done for a while.

David Ragan
Believe it or not David has the 3rd best average finish at Talladega among active drivers with more than 1 career race. In his 5 races here he has 2 top fives and is averaging a 14th place finish. You may not think much of David, or the job he’s done this season, but from the numbers it seems like he should have a decent weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is contending for a top ten by the end of the race.

Darkhorses: Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose, Joey Logano
All of these guys only have 1 career race at Talladega and Brad won, while Marcos got a 4th place finish and Joey a 9th place finish. Talladega is a track that anyone can win, and since the cars are so tightly packed, track position doesn’t matter until the final couple laps. Anyone in 25th or better can storm to the front of the pack in 2 or 3 laps and get the win. These young guys know how to go fast, and don’t be surprised if one of them takes home a top five or even wins on Sunday.

Can you believe the dominance of Jimmie Johnson? The guy is incredible, winning 3 of the 5 chase races and finishing 4th and 9th in the other two. It’d be tough to bet against him winning the championship. This weekend the boys go to the Martinsville Speedway for the Tums Fast Relief 500. There are a couple of chasers that have dominated here and some non-chasers that would be good to have on your team.

This week’s recommendations:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
You can’t bet against Jimmie right now. He is red hot, and he’s awesome at Martinsville too! In 15 career races he’s finished in the top ten 14 times with 6 wins for an average finish of 5.3. Those are ridiculous numbers. Add to that the fact that since the chase has started, he’s won 3 races and has an average finish of 3.2. He’s just sick.

Alternate Chaser: Jeff Gordon
If you want to pick someone besides Jimmie, his Hendrick teammate, Gordon, has to be your choice. He’s the 2nd hottest driver right now, and has also dominated at Martinsville. In 33 career races here he’s collected 27 top tens and 7 wins, most among active drivers. His average finish of 6.8 is only second to Jimmie. Since the chase started Jeff has done pretty well also. He’s averaging a 5.8 place finish in the chaser also.

Clint Bowyer
Believe it or not, Clint has done really well in Martinsville, averaging a 12.7 place finish and is averaging a 12.2 place finish since the chase started. He hasn’t been very hot all year, but he is heating up now with 4 top tens in the last 6 races. He should be a good choice for your team and get you some points, as he has 4 consecutive top ten finishes at Martinsville.

Casey Mears
Casey hasn’t done particularly well at Martinsville, but has managed 2 top tens in the last 3 here, which is an improvement for him. The main reason for recommending him is that since the chase started he’s averaging a 12.6 place finish (9th best) and he’s coming off a 7th place finish last weekend. His confidence should be up and feeling good from that, which will hopefully carry into this weekend.

Darkhorse: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Pathetic is one word you could use to describe Jr’s year. He’s been downright bad, and since the chase stated he’s gotten worse, averaging a 30.8 place finish. (Only 2 drivers are worse.) So, why would you want him on your team? He actually races hard and had a good record at Martinsville. In 19 career races he has 10 top tens and averages a 13.3 place finish, which is 8th best among active drivers. He could be worth a gamble to put on your team.

Jimmie flexed his muscle this past week and took the points lead from Mark Martin. Will that continue this weekend? Maybe, but Jimmie only has one top ten finish at Lowe’s Motor Speedway in the past 4 races. There are a couple of other chasers that do well here and should challenge Jimmie for the win. So, who are they?

Driver recommendations for this week:

Chaser: Carl Edwards
Carl is averaging a 10th place finish at Lowe’s with 7 top ten finishes in 9 races. A win has eluded him so far, but he could get is first this weekend. He moved up to 8th in points after last week’s race and if he has another strong finish he could gain a couple more spots. With everyone else jumping on Jimmie’s bandwagon, picking Carl could gain you some spots since he won’t be on as many people’s teams.

Alternate Chaser: Kasey Kahne
Want another different chaser to put on your team? Kasey is the guy. He’s in 11th well out of the title hunt, but he runs really well in Charlotte. For his career he has 6 top ten finishes with 3 of them being wins. I guarantee you not many people will have Kasey on their team, so he could be a good pick to try and gain points on the competition.

Kyle Busch
Well, Kyle is Kyle. His record at Lowe’s Motor Speedway isn’t the best with only 5 top tens in 11 career races, but 4 of those 5 top tens have come in the last 4 races. He’s obviously one of the most talented drivers in NASCAR, but it’s a matter of him keeping his focus and getting the job done on Sunday. Hopefully his recent success at the track is an indicator of how he’ll do this weekend.

Jeff Burton
Jeff has 6 top tens in the last 8 races at this track. His 14.8 place average finish is good enough for 7th best among active drivers. Jeff is a solid driver and knows how to get around the track. He’s a good pick to have on your team and should contend for a top ten this weekend.

Dark horse: Bobby Labonte
Bobby has been around a while and in 33 career races at Lowe’s Motor Speedway he has 17 top tens with an average finish of 12.8, 5th best among active drivers. He hasn’t had a top ten finish here since 2006, but has not been all that bad with 13th, 12th, 11th, 17th, 12th place finishes. Bobby has had a very bad year, and has been doing badly in the last 5 races with an average finish of 29th (4th worst). He should be able to keep his top 15 runs going this weekend, and help your team get some points.

Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. Ever Be Good Again? A Comparison to Kyle Petty

Remember the first few years of Dale Earnhardt Junior’s career when he had so much promise and potential? Everyone thought he could be just like his daddy and take over the family name and keep the winning tradition alive. In 2000, his first full season in the Sprint Cup Series, he had 2 wins. He followed that up in 2001 with 3 wins and an 8th place finish in the point standings, which was very impressive. After that he was considered a perennial contender for the Cup, and rightfully so. Standings wise he had his best year in 2003 finishing in 3rd place, and win wise 2004 was his best year collecting 6 wins and finishing 6th in the point standings. It seems to have gone down-hill since then.

There’s one other son of a legend that at one time had great promise and potential although he seemed to flame out and become irrelevant on the race track. In the eighties Kyle Petty had to try and follow in his father, The King’s, footsteps. He did have some success, but never became a top-tier driver. Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. have the same fate?

First let’s look at some numbers for Kyle Petty and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to see how their careers are similar so far, and then we can take a look at my theory for Junior’s drop off in productivity.

Below is a table of stats for Kyle Petty and Dale Earnhardt Jr. broken down by their first full 5 seasons in Sprint Cup, and their 6th thru 10th seasons in the Sprint Cup Series. (2009 is the tenth full season for Dale Jr. so his stats will only include the first 28 races.)

As you can see in their first 5 seasons Dale outperformed Kyle pretty easily, collecting a lot more wins, top fives and top tens, but more importantly having a better average start and finish position for the races, and better standing in the points at the end of the season.

In his 6th thru 10th seasons Dale Jr. had his numbers drop off dramatically. His points position is 5.5 spots worse, he has 12 fewer wins, not as many top fives and top tens, is starting the races 5 spots worse, and finishing 2 spots worse than he did in his first full 5 seasons.

This is a reverse of what Kyle Petty had done in his 6th thru 10th seasons. He did have some drop off in his average points position, but not as dramatic as Jr, and Kyle actually did better with average start and finishing position in the races, and had more wins than his first 5 seasons.

So, what does this mean for Junior? Well if Kyle is any indicator, Dale better hope next year is better or he could fall into irrelevance pretty soon. You can see Kyle’s numbers after his 10th full season (18 more seasons) and they’re not pretty. His average points position is pathetic, average finishing position for a race wasn’t even in the top 20, and after his 15th full season he never won another race. That’s 13 seasons without a win to end your career. Ouch!

Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. be that bad? I don’t know if he’d let it get to that. I think he’d retire before it gets embarrassing, but with the way this season has gone, it’s getting embarrassing quick.

So, why has Dale’s performance been so bad the past five seasons? Easy; Michael Waltrip. Michael was the perfect 2nd fiddle to Dale Earnhardt Jr. at DEI. He was there to help Dale out on the track and push him along at Talladega and Daytona. He was there to talk to Dale in the garage and build him up and give him confidence. He was the perfect teammate for Dale Earnhardt Jr. After the 2005 season Michael Waltrip left DEI to form his own team and Dale hasn’t been the same since.

Yes, there was the much publicized battle with Teresa Earnhardt to see who would have control over DEI which had to be a distraction for him, constantly being asked about the situation, but he still grossly underperformed. In 2008 when he started racing for Rick Hendrick everyone though that he’d be back to his old form. He got the best equipment and personnel to help him win. Well, we’re still waiting. One win in 64 races with Hendrick isn’t getting it done.

So why is he doing do poorly with Hendrick with all the latest technology and best equipment? No Michael Waltrip to push him. Jeff, Jimmie, and Mark are all top-tier drivers that are worried about their own championship runs and winning races. They’re not worried about building Jr. up and making him happy. He needs to be able to do that himself. They are not there to push him around the track like Michael did, they’re going to pass him and try to get the win themselves. Teammates in the garage, but on the track it’s every man for himself.

Can Jr. succeed again? Yes. He owns a team in the Nationwide series. If he can get that team running in the Sprint Cup Series and make it a two car team he’ll have a chance. He would need to be the “A” driver and have a young kid or 2nd tier veteran as his teammate that can help push him on the track and build him up in the garage. It seems that is the only kind of environment that Dale Earnhardt Jr. will thrive in.

What do you think?

With the chasers doing so well it’s making it tough to pick drivers and get big points. It should be easier this week since there are a few non-chasers that have done well in California. The Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California is a sister track of the Michigan International Speedway with the same D shape configuration, but less banking. The track will allow the drivers to drive and the top drivers should get to the front.

Recommendations for the Week:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
There’s no one better at this track than Jimmie Johnson. He has 3 wins, tied for the most, 8 top fives, 9 top tens and an average finish of 6.2 in 13 career races. His worst finish was 16th place! If he’s going to make a move, and take the points lead, to get his 4th consecutive Sprint Cup Series championship this is the race he’ll do it. He is absolute money here and should either win, or be in the top 5.

Alternate Chaser: Carl Edwards
We haven’t heard as much from Carl in the chase as I thought we would. He’s back in 10th place, but with a good run this weekend he may get back into the mix. In 10 career races Carl has 9 top tens and his 6.7 place average finish is 2nd best to Jimmie. If for some reason you don’t put Jimmie on your team, then you definitely need Carl on it. One of these two will win.

Matt Kenseth
Jimmie and Carl are 1st and 2nd in average finish at the Auto Club speedway, so why not pick the guy who has the 3rd best average finish? That is Matt Kenseth with a 9th place average finish. He, like Jimmie Johnson, has 3 wins here as well as 7 top fives and 11 top tens in 15 career races. Matt didn’t perform well last week and looks to rebound at a familiar track this weekend.

Kyle Busch
So, guess who has the 4th best average finish? Yup, Kyle. He averages a 9.2 finish along with his 1 career win and 8 top tens in 10 career races. He showed some life last week and seems like he isn’t mailing it in for the final races of the season. Look for Kyle to keep showing signs of life and try to finish the season strong to build for 2010. He should be on your team.

Dark horse: Kevin Harvick
Kevin doesn’t have the best record at the Auto Club Speedway, but he did have two top ten finishes here in 2008. In his last 4 races this season he has a 9th, 32nd, 12th, and 24th place finishes. If that trend continues, then Kevin will be due for a top 12 finish. There aren’t many other drivers to choose from for a dark horse, so Kevin should do just fine on your team. I doubt many others will have him, so it could be a chance for you to pick up gain points on the people in front of you.

The third race in the chase is at Kansas. Kansas is one of the more boring, cookie-cutter tracks in NASCAR, but hopefully the racing action will be exciting. I’m sure Joey Logano doesn’t want it to be as exciting for him as last week when he went flipping down the track. We’ll see if Jimmie can keep the pressure on Mark, or if the old guy will keep the points lead.

Recommendations for the week:

Chaser: Mark Martin
Average finish of 2.8 over the last 5 races, 7th best average finish at Kansas and just rolling. Mark Martin should be on your team. He only has 3 top tens in 8 races here, but 2 of them are top fives and 1 win.

Alternate Chaser: Greg Biffle
The Biff has the 4th best average finish over the last 5 races (9.8) and 4th best average finish at Kansas (9.9). If you don’t think Mark Martin can continue his strong runs, then Biffle is the chaser you should have on your team. In 7 career Kansas races he has 4 top fives and 1 win.

Clint Bowyer
Clint only has 3 races under his belt at Kansas, but two finishes were in the top ten, and no one has a better average finish than his 7.7. He does have 2 top tens over the last 3 races this season, so don’t count him out of finishing in the top 10 this weekend. He could be a solid performer for your team.

Jeff Burton
Not so long ago Jeff was a driver you could count on being in the hunt for a championship. Now he finds himself lost in the middle of the pack. His record at Kansas isn’t very impressive, with only 2 top tens, but they have come over the last 3 races. He hasn’t had a top ten finish in a long time and is way past due.

Darkhorse: Casey Mears
Casey isn’t one of the drivers you’d normally put on your team, but if you’re looking to gain points and pick up someone that no one else has on their team, then he could be your guy. In 6 career races at Kansas Casey has a good record. He has 3 top tens and an average finish of 13.8, good enough for 9th best among active drivers.

Dover International Speedway, the Monster Mile, hosts the second Chase race. The old man, Mark Martin, was impressive last week, and has kept his points lead. Will he rack up another win this week?

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Greg Biffle
Greg has been excellent at Dover, and has done well in the last 5 races. At Dover he has the 4th best average finish (10.6) and 7 consecutive top ten finishes. Is that amazing or what? For his career he has 2 wins, 6 top fives and 9 top tens in 14 races. Oh, and he’s averaging a 11.2 place finish over the last 5 races, good enough for 7th best.

Alternate Chaser: Mark Martin
The old man can still get it done, and he can really get it done at Dover. His 4 wins here are tied for best among active drivers. In is 46 career races here he has 21 top fives and 29 top tens to go with the 4 wins. His average finish of 12.7 is 7th best at Dover, and over his last 5 races Mark has the 3rd best average finish at 8.6. It’ll be tough to not put Mark on your fantasy team this week.

Matt Kenseth
I know, Matt disappointed us last week with a 23rd place finish, but don’t give up on him yet. He has 6 top tens in the last 7 races at Dover. For his career he has 13 top tens in 21 races. Matt is too good to have two bad weeks in a row, right? Yes, he is, so put him on your team.

Kyle Busch
Kyle has been hot lately, averaging a 9.4 finish in his last 5 races. His overall stats at Dover aren’t that impressive, but he does have a win and 5 top fives in 9 career races. If he can finish the race, he should be running up front and content for a top five finish.

Darkhorse: Jeff Burton
Jeff has had a very unspectacular year, and his last top 10 was in Pocono back in June, which means he’s way past due for a good run. He does have 3 top tens in the last 4 races at Dover, and 13 career top tens, so don’t count him out. He may be a good driver to put on your team that others won’t have.